Chinas transformation involves a gradual shift in its development strategy, including the rebalancing process from investment to consumption, the demographic transition, the structural transformation towards high valueadded goods and. Economic mobility and the rise of the latin american middle class. The stark exceptions remain venezuela and argentina. Western hemisphere was prepared by a team led by hamid faruqee and s. Against this backdrop, economic activity in latin america and the caribbean has been hard hit and is likely to con tract for the second consecutive year in 2016.
Countries strengthened their macroeconomic situations, living standards improved, and poverty and inequality declined. Latin america and the caribbean economic outlook enrique iglesias, president, interamerican development bank remarks to the secretarys open forum washington, dc june 24, 2004. Latin america and the caribbean has seen a remarkable socio economic progress since the beginning of the century. Economic freedom is the only way for latin america to escape. Ernesto talvi and ignacio munyo monday, july 1, 20. Despite the end of the golden decade of the commodities boom, china will continue to be a game changer for the region. Latin america and the caribbean regional growth is expected to rise to 1. Latin american economic outlook latin american economic. Economic activity picked up in january as the deescalation of social tensions, prompted by the start of the holiday season in middecember, supported the nonmining economy. The weak momentum reflects negative surprises in the first half of 2019, elevated domestic policy uncertainty in some large economies, heightened. Economic activity in latin america and the caribbean remains sluggish. We maintain our forecast of increasing global growth, from. Link global economic outlook 20152016 united nations. Latin america and, to a lesser degree, subsaharan africa, where a number of commodity exporters are struggling to maintain growth.
List of latin american and caribbean countries by gdp ppp. Growth in latin america and south africa is expected to pick up. Chile economy gdp, inflation, cpi and interest rate. The latin american economic outlook 2016 is devoted to the evolving relationship between latin america and china, as well as its prospects in the long term. Listed below are chapters from the south american countries of the minerals yearbook volume iii.
Latin america outlook 4q2016 latin america outlook 4th quarter 2016. Economic situation and outlook for latin america and the caribbean for the period 20162017 original. Latin american economic outlook 2019 summary in english click to access in html. English and spanish summary the decelerating growth trend that latin america and the caribbean has seen since 2011 intensified in 2016, with a second year of economic decline. Oecdcafeclac calculations based on the methodology proposed by felipe, abdon and kumar 2012. Sound macroeconomic fundamentals still a feature of some countries colombia, chile, peru, uruguay and to some extent mexico still have a high quality policy. Latin america macroeconomic outlook a global perspective. The regions aggregate gdp is estimated to have decreased 1. Global economic growth has rebounded and is expected to remain stable but low global economic growth increased to 3. Western hemisphere was prepared by a team led by hamid. An annual publication of the oecd development center, the latin american economic outlook provides original information and comparative indicators on key issues affecting the regions development. Business sentiment at alltime low in march on coronavirus fears. Economic activity in latin america and the caribbean has been cooling down for several years, and the temperature in many places is still falling. Jul 01, 20 report latin america macroeconomic outlook in the global context.
Chinas transformation involves a gradual shift in its development strategy, including the rebalancing process from investment to consumption, the demographic transition, the structural transformation towards high valueadded. Oecd ilibrary latin american economic outlook 2016. In a controversial move, venezuelas presidential election was moved forward from december 2018 to may. Latin america as a region has multiple nationstates, with varying levels of economic complexity. Jul 29, 2019 by alejandro werner espanol economic activity in latin america and the caribbean remains sluggish. Since its inception in 1991, the global economic prospects report has examined international economic developments and the outlook for growth, with a special focus on emerging market and developing. Economic outlook latin america 2nd quarter 2017 3 1.
Over the past ten years, governments in latin america from across the political spectrum have lowered barriers to foreign investment. The team included steve brito, carlos caceres, yan carriereswallow, marcos chamon, roberto. Agricultural trade was reposted to correct the 2017 estimate of u. Latin america economic outlook second quarter 2015 inflation rose in the region in spite of the cyclical weakness, but it should come back to central bank target levels at the end of 2015 or 2016, except in brazil and uruguay although it will be within the target range in brazil.
Jun, 2016 latin americas cities are the most unequal on the planet. It is central to our future success, it enhances and protects our customers and the communities in which we operate and it safeguards our reputation for responsible leadership. In brazil, more robust investor confidence, together with a gradual easing of lending and labor market conditions, is expected to support an acceleration in. The 2016 edition of the latin american economic outlook explores how the region could deepen and improve its partnership with china as part of its development agenda. Ever since the first edition was launched at the 17th iberoamerican summit of heads of state and government in november 2007 in santiago chile, the report has offered a comparison of latin american performance with that of other countries and regions in the world.
Issues in the 115th congress congressional research service summary geographic proximity has ensured strong linkages between the united states and latin america and the caribbean, based on diverse u. Latin america is experiencing its first regionwide economic downturn since 2009 image. Latin american economic outlook 2016 digital repository cepal. The latin american economic outlook 2016 is devoted to the evolving relationship between latin america and.
Exports dropped by 48% between 2012 and 2016, the steepest fall since the great depression of 1929 to 1932. The model is the oecd revenue statistics database which is a fundamental reference, backed by a wellestablished. Brazil colombia chile mexico latin americagrowth to pick up in 2018 but risks to outlook are high argentina peru venezuela buoyed by businessfriendly reforms adopted by the macri administration, the economy is expected to rebound a strengthening mining sector and growing infrastructure investment to sustain growth the economy to. Yet, large structural vulnerabilities remain and new ones have emerged. Global gdp growth will improve slightly from the second half of 2016. Economic activity in other emerging market economies is expected to remain differentiated. Latin american economic outlook for 2016 wilson center. The economy seems to be rebounding in the first quarter, after most likely contracting in the fourth quarter of last year. Growth in latin america and the caribbean lac is estimated to have reached 0. Information contained on this site has been prepared by scotiabank economics.
Although poverty reduction was prioritized by many governments, latin america is home to 10 of the 15 most unequal countries in the world. The latin american economic outlook analyses issues related to latin americas economic and social development. Given our definition of the middle class, there are four, not three, classes in latin america. Regional growth is now expected to dip below 1 percent in 2015down from 1. Latin america and the caribbean has seen a remarkable socioeconomic progress since the beginning of the century. The regional recession, however, masks the fact that most coun. The latin american economy is an exportbased economy consisting of individual countries in the geographical regions of north america, central america, south america, and the caribbean. The chinese economy is thus expected to continue cooling, amid moderating consumption growth, weaker export growth and a slowdown in the property sector. Mar 27, 2019 all told, latin america gdp improves in 2020 thanks to mexico, brazil, colombia, and argentina, growing at 2. The recovery was broad based, driven by expansions in developing, emerging and developed countries alike. Latin american economic outlook 2019 development in transition.
Many of these are linked to countries transition to higher income and development levels. Revenue statistics latin american economic outlook. Latin america outlook 4q2016 2 the global economy is heading for a slow recovery. Latin american economic outlook latin american economic outlook. Oecdeclaccaf 2016, latin american economic outlook 2017. Latin america with low economic growth much longer. Global economic prospects january 2018 economic outlook.
Summary financial markets in latin america continued to show significant gains in the past few months. Pelin berkmen under the overall direction and guidance of alejandro werner and krishna. Development in transition leo 2019 presents a fresh analytical approach to the regions development trajectories. The latin american economic outlook leo analyses issues related to sustainable and inclusive. Well good morning, thank you very much something, for this very kind invitation. The latin american economic outlook 2018, prepared by the oecd development centre, eclac, caf and the european commission, with contributions. The imfs latest regional economic outlook for the western hemisphere, released on april 27 in mexico city, projects that the region is set to contract by 0. Luis lacalle pou was elected president in a runoff election on november 24, 2019, and is expected to take office on march 1, 2020. This is a list of latin american and caribbean countries by gross domestic product at purchasing power parity in international dollars according to the international monetary funds estimates in the october 2018 world economic outlook database the latin american countries brazil, mexico, and argentina accounted for over twothirds of the regions total gross domestic product gdp at. The revenue statistics in latin america and the caribbean publication compiles comparable tax revenue statistics for a number of latin american and caribbean economies, the majority of which are not oecd member countries. While the information is from sources believed to be reliable, neither the information nor any forecasts contained on this site shall be taken as a representation for which the bank of nova scotia or scotia capital inc. According to the organisation for economic cooperation and developments oecd fdi restrictiveness index, several countries rank at or near the level of the united states, including argentina, chile, colombia, and brazil figure 2.
More information on the latin american economic outlook at. Revenue statistics in latin america and the caribbean. Thus far, the favorable situation internationally has allowed them to enjoy economic health without radical policy changes. Chinas transformation involves a gradual shift in its development strategy, including the rebalancing process from investment to consumption, the demographic transition. Global growth again fell short of expectations in 2015, slowing to 2. Contributory factors included reduced concerns about us economic policies and the perception. The business confidence indicator dived from februarys 48.
The brazilian economy saw a clear slowdown at the end of 2018 and growth in economic activity for the year was only 1. Latin america economic outlook 4th quarter 2017 6 of 2016, gains amounted to 2% in the case of argentina, 101% in that of uruguay, 77% in brazil, 49% in chile, 30% in colombia and 16% in mexico. The disappointing performance was mainly due to a continued deceleration of economic activity in emerging and. Electronic outlook report from usdas economic research service and foreign agricultural service approved by the world agricultural outlook board. As for the currency markets, gains were less significant in the. Pelin berkmen under the overall direction and guidance of alejandro werner and krishna srinivasan. On december 7, 2017, the november 2017 outlook for u. Sandwiched between the poor and the middle class there lies a large group of people who appear to make ends meet well enough, but do not enjoy the economic security that would be required for membership of the middle class. The latin american economic outlook is the oecd development centres annual analysis of economic developments in latin america in partnership with the economic commission for latin america and the caribbean, the development bank of latin america and the european commission. Revenue statistics in latin america and the caribbean 2019. Both middles will need to be filled if latin america is to have a new chance of generating sustainable growth that benefits the broad base of the population.
Economic weakness persisted at the beginning of the year following two consecutive periods in which the economy contracted in the third and fourth quarters of 2015the sharpest fall in six years was registered in q4. First, for those countries that have done their homework in recent years, the new outlook requires additional steps in terms of economic policy. Economic slack has largely kept price pressures contained in most countries of the region. Data extracted from international monetary fund, world economic outlook database 2015 and maddison 2010 database low middle high 0 5000 0 15000 20000 25000. Outlook and risks growth in latin american and the caribbean is. A global perspective 1 executive summary latin america is cooling off and it is doing so sharply. All latin american countries are facing a challenging economic climate, but its not all doom and gloom in 2016. Fact sheet on leaders and elections congressional research service 2 f. Finally, many thanks go to the publications and communications division of the oecd development centre, in particular aida buendia, delphine grandrieux and vanda. Latin america is experiencing its first regionwide economic downturn since 2009 the imfs revised world economic outlook projected in october that the regions economy would contract by 0. Latin america macroeconomic outlook a global perspective macroeconomic vulnerabilities in an uncertain world. All told, latin america gdp improves in 2020 thanks to mexico, brazil, colombia, and argentina, growing at 2. Oecdeclaccaf 2015, latin american economic outlook 2016.
The rollout of new insurance products and distribution approaches at a time. Ever since the launch of the first edition in november. Almost threequarters of latin americas growth came from expanding the number of workers rather than through productivity. Area reportsinternational latin america and canada. Latam growth will remain low in 2015 and will slowly pick up in 2016. Metrics for policies for wellbeing and sustainable development in latin america and the caribbean. Latin americas economy now growing faster than asias. Last year the country continued to recover too slowly from the strong recession that knocked almost seven percentage points off brazils gdp between 2015 and 2016.
Asuntos internacionales a turning point for economic growth in the region. Latin america economic outlook second quarter 2015 1 overview we have revised our world growth forecast for 2015 to 3. Global economic prospects january 2018 latin america and the caribbean 107 sustainability has deteriorated sharply due to falling commodity prices and, in many cases, inadequate policy responses, leaving considerable scope for growthenhancing fiscal reforms as discussed in the emde fiscal policy section of. Economic outlook 2019 macroeconomic performance and. Prospects reportcalled global economic prospects and the developing countrieswas launched as a formal publication for wide dissemination. Economic activity in latin america and the caribbean is expected to bottom out in 2016, before making a modest recovery next year. This is a list of latin american and caribbean countries by gross domestic product at purchasing power parity in international dollars according to the international monetary funds estimates in the october 2018 world economic outlook database. Latin american economic outlook 2019 development in. Indeed, slower growth in china and an expected increase in. Evading the middle income trap in latin america gdp per capita. The oecd formulates recommendations for action and highlights best practices, placing its skills and its rigorous analysis at the service of development in latin america. Members of the interamerican dialogues corporate program are invited to an informal, offtherecord discussion with us government officials about the economic and political outlook for latin america and the caribbean.
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